Goa: Matters are not favourable for BJP in the State and it is clearly indicated in the body language of party leaders. Their delay to announce the constituency for Parrikar is one of the indicators that the party intends to think well before saying anything.
Two by-polls are staring at Goa in the months ahead. One in Valpoi constituency, that appears to be already decided, while another one could be in Curchorem or Panaji. Chief Minister Manohar Parrikar has to be elected as a member of the Legislative Assembly within six months, and the clock is already ticking.
While Goa is no novice to by-polls, this time the political situation will be different. It will certainly be a cake walk for Vishwajit Rane in his traditional Valpoi constituency when he faces the by polls. The recent decision by Pratapsing Rane not to campaign against his son in this constituency has flattened Congress’ prospects there.
There is no doubt that Vishwajit will breeze through the election. Though the contest will not be unopposed, it can certainly be less opposed. There is no candidate who can actually cut into the votes of Vishwajit.
Junior Rane seems to be brimming with confidence over his victory in the Valpoi constituency. The meetings that he has been addressing in various corners are well attended. There is no open rebel against him except for a few but they too are without much support.
This is the situation in Valpoi in a nut shell. But what about the constituency where Manohar Parrikar would be contesting his by-poll?
It is ironical that the man who drove his party to a historic victory in the year 2012 by decisively defeating the Congress is now searching for a safer constituency to get elected. His wave was such in the year 2012 that many of the BJP MLAs got elected merely because people wanted Parrikar to be the chief minister.
And now we are in 2017, Parrikar is already the Chief Minister, but the BJP is yet to finalise the constituency for him. Ideally it was expected that the Panaji constituency which he has been traditionally representing would be vacated for him. But the BJP MLA Siddharth Kuncolienkar is learnt to be reluctant, though he does not admit it in public.
The decision by Atanasio Monserrate to contest against Parrikar in the Panaji constituency by-poll has also made the BJP think twice. It would be a conflicting situation for the Goa Forward party and its leader Vijai Sardesai, if Monserrate contests against Parrikar, as the former is his friend and the latter is his chief minister.
Parrikar himself is finding Panaji as not too safe a constituency for him. The situation has changed since 2012 in Panaji. So the next option is Curchorem.
Loyal BJP leader Nilesh Cabral was amongst the first MLAs ready for sacrifice. He had also expressed his willingness to step down during the first few meetings of BJP. But here too, Parrikar will have to take decision wisely. Curchorem has never been his constituency. There are sizeable voters who might not vote for Parrikar there.
Another factor here is the way BJP has treated its former leader Ramrao Desai, whose political ambitions have been crushed. Similarly, the Goa Suraksha Manch is active here in the form of Sham Satardekar, former MLA. Congress too has its hold here. And many of the voters here vote for Nilesh Cabral as an individual.
Neither can Parrikar bank on its ally Goa Forward party in this constituency as they have no presence here. There are traditional MGP voters here as the neighbouring Sanvordem constituency is currently represented by Dipak Pauskar. But still, Parrikar can’t bank on MGP voters to vote for the Lotus this time.
It is a very tactful decision that Parrikar will have to take while deciding where to throw his hat through the by-polls. The BJP can’t have a pre poll survey either, as the trends in the State have gone haywire right now, with the unlikely combination of political forces.
Curchorem is a mining belt and Parrikar might not be their favourite considering the fact that it was during his tenure that the iron ore extraction and export activity was banned. Mining can be a pro or anti factor for Parrikar. People will also remember that Parrikar was the one who offered them monthly financial packages during the mining ban. The voters here would certainly be confused if they go to think about Parrikar on the mining ban yardstick.
BJP has kept its cards close to its heart. The Party’s Goa unit chief Vinay Tendulkar has recently mentioned that six MLAs are ready to sacrifice their seat for Parrikar. The figure is bloated, it won’t be six, as many legislators will find it politically suicidal to resign as MLA at this point of time.
Matters are not favourable for BJP in the State and it is clearly indicated in the body language of party leaders. Their delay to announce the constituency for Parrikar is one of the indicators that the party intends to think well before saying anything.
It is certain that Parrikar will pull through the by-poll as the alliance partners and his own party will make all possible efforts to ensure that he remains in the assembly. But one thing is certain that for Parrikar the by-poll won’t be an easy affair. The kind of support that he enjoyed in the year 2012 is a thing of past.
Team TNV
