As more than a thousand people from Valpoi flooded the streets of Panaji earlier this month, there was something unusual happening. The news of Vishwajit Rane joining the BJP was already an old story, but to see it happen so quickly, was something unbelievable. But that’s what Goa’s politics has come to right now.
Vishwajit’s introduction to politics was through his father, Pratapsingh Rane, the uncrowned king of Sattari, who is known for his classy style, no non-sense behavior and marathon experience in running the State. ‘Khashe’, as he is known in this area, commands a lot of respect.
Then came Vishwajit. The current young generation in Sattari is witness to the growth of Vishwajit Rane in politics. Maybe that is the reason why they identify themselves with him. Vishwajit has a huge fan following.
Though Vishwajit entered politics as Rane’s son, within no time he managed to
capture the pulse of the people there, who don’t have much demands except for wanting that their basic necessities be provided. But Vishwajit gave them more than what they expected. The most important being his direct connect with the people, going beyond just being ‘Khashe.’
Walking through the villages during his election campaigning, people were so thankful to him, just for arriving in their homes and drinking a glass of water sitting on the plastic chair on their cow-dung coated flooring. He listened to their problems and many a times brought solutions for them.
While all this happened, Vishwajit symbolized the Congress party in this constituency. There came a time during the 2017 election that Vishwajit had to canvass for his father in Poriem constituency. The reach of this Congress leader grew up to Bicholim and Mayem constituencies. Surprisingly though, he had not much say in Sanquelim.
And now back in April 2017, the month which starts with April Fool Day, we saw Chief Minister Manohar Parrikar and Vishwajit Rane rubbing shoulders with each other. It is the time for Valpoi to get saffronised. Junior Rane is now a BJP leader with each of his posters inevitably sporting the ‘Lotus’ symbol, while the ‘Hand’ has disappeared.
For the 2017 polls, Vishwajit polled 70 per cent of the total votes. It is almost impossible to dissect as to how many of these votes are his personal and what share Congress has. The upcoming by-election will surely showcase that division, but the fact remains that Valpoi voted anti-BJP.
Those who have been closely following politics in Valpoi constituency know that this constituency was once upon a time a BJP fiefdom which gave leaders like Narahari Haldankar to the State Legislative Assembly. But the influence of Rane has completely wiped out the BJP influence in this area.
Experts who are analyzing the trends, patterns, decisions and accidents in Goa’s politics are yet to understand what Manohar Parrikar is really trying to achieve by inducting Vishwajit into the BJP and into the State cabinet. From the outside, it looks like the BJP wants to capture all of Sattari through Vishwajit, including the Poriem constituency. But is this the only motive?
Another reason why Vishwajit is currently in the BJP is to ensure that the Parrikar-led government survives its full term. The fear of alliance partners deserting might be playing on the mind of Parrikar. With Vishwajit in, BJP’s tally will go to 14 if he gets through the by-election. This will give little more muscle to Parrikar, who will himself have to get elected in some or other constituency to retain the
post of CM.
There are strong rumours that Pratapsingh will quit Congress and Parrikar will contest from Poriem constituency, which is the safest seat for him. But this sounds a little impossible as Rane would not like to hand over his bastion to a non-Rane and non-family leader.
Just as we have been doing all this while, we have to keep aside our thinking cap and watch what is going to happen. It’s just a wait of another couple of months, as Parrikar will have to display the cards he has currently kept close to his chest. The Congress party has already pressed Valpoi by-poll mode. Party leaders are scouting for the right candidate to take Vishwajit head-on. AAP is yet to pronounce whether they are going to contest in Valpoi or not. Their candidate Ashish Kanekar has joined Congress. For AAP, the first task would be to find a proper candidate who will not lose his deposit.
Other parties are insignificant in this constituency. Goa Forward and MGP are likely to support Vishwajit in Valpoi as they are part of the coalition government. Otherwise also, Vishwajit was part of the team led by Vijai Sardesai during the last tenure. What the team spoke then need not be repeated.
The season of election is going to continue for Goa. Now immediately we will have Panchayat polls, and after that by-elections, followed by Lok Sabha elections. So for the next two to three years the polls will be part of our daily routine. The state will go under the ‘code of conduct’ often. Vishwajit has already hit the ground running and will camp in his constituency till the by-election. The main plank on which he is trying to convince voters is the development of the constituency. We have to see whether the people buy his contention, but looking at his popularity, it is unlikely he is going to face any major trouble. His arch-rival – the BJP – is with him, but it is not clear whether local BJP cadres will support him in the constituency.
Another factor, the Parrikar magic, will also play a vital role in this constituency. The Parrikar fan following will help Vishwajit to increase his vote share. Though it is not prudent to predict anything right now, by and large the by-poll will not be a very difficult task for Vishwajit to win.
